Data source: Fugro annual reports 2020–2025 (CSV) + Brent Crude BZ=F via Yahoo Finance. Forecasts are statistical projections, not investment advice.
Historical Performance
Financial Highlights 2020–2025
Quantitative Forecast
10-Year Revenue Projection — 6 Model Scenarios
Revenue Forecast 2026–2035 (EUR Millions)
Box-Cox lambda=0 | STL trend isolated | Damped slope phi=0.88 | SMA ensemble
Macro Factor Analysis
Revenue vs. Brent Crude Oil
Revenue / Brent Crude Scatter 2020–2025
GLM regressors: intercept, t (normalized), oil (USD/bbl) | Pearson R displayed
Financial Ratios
Historical EBIT Margin & Cash Flow Conversion
Scenario Matrix
Revenue Forecasts by Model and Scenario (EUR Millions)
Methodology
Model Architecture
Model BGLM LOG-LINK
Generalized Linear Model with log-link. Regresses log(Revenue) on normalized time and Brent Crude oil price via OLS. Log-link guarantees strictly positive predictions. Scenario fan: +/-1.28 sigma on residual standard error. Oil price path follows mean-reverting decay toward long-run mean.
Link: log(mu)=Xb
Regressors: intercept, t, oil
Bull CI: +1.28 sigma
Bear CI: -1.28 sigma
Model CBSTS KALMAN
Bayesian Structural Time Series: Local Level + Slope with Kalman Filter. Observation variance at 2025 inflated by (lastDiff/typDiff)^1.5 to down-weight the outlier. Damped slope phi=0.88 applied each horizon step to prevent infinite extrapolation. Prediction intervals scale with sqrt(h).
sigma_obs: data-driven
sigma_level: data-driven
phi (damp): 0.88
2025 outlier: R inflated
PreprocessingBOX-COX + STL
Box-Cox transformation with lambda estimated by profile log-likelihood sweep over [-2,2] at step 0.05. STL decomposition via centered moving average (window=3) to isolate trend from the 2025 anomaly. Residuals used to assess outlier magnitude.
lambda: profile MLE
STL window: 3
EnsembleSMA + DAMPING
Simple Model Averaging: 50% Model B + 50% Model C, applied independently to bull, base, and bear scenarios. Damped trend: forecast = fc * dp^h + 0.5 * lastActual * (1 - dp^h), where dp=0.92 for base. Prevents structural outlier from dominating long-horizon slope.
Weights: 0.5 / 0.5
Damp factor: 0.92 (base)